Brown still bouncing as bottom falls out of Cameron Leadership

After approximately one month in Number 10, Gordon Brown is enjoying an upsurge in popularity among voters, while David Cameron's support among conservatives wavers, according to the results of a new ICM poll.

The poll, conducted the weekend after the Ealing and Sedgefied by-elections, sees Browns approval among voters go up by 21%, compared to Cameron's approval going down by the same amount. Particularly telling are results which suggest that Cameron is losing support from within his own party, with 42% of voters saying they like the party but dislike Mr Cameron.

It has been a tough few months for the Tory leader; the Grammar Schools row, which led to the resignation of Shadow Europe Minister Graham Brady, undermined his authority, while a poor showing in Ealing and Sedgefield has done little to boost confidence among the rank and file. Most recently, the Leader has had to deflect allegations that he abandoned his flood-struck Witney constituency in favour of a trip to Africa to discuss development issues.

But are the latest poll figures that surprising?

Since taking control of the Conservative party in a virtual media coup in December 2005, Cameron's first battle was always to win over the traditional Conservative vote. While the past 18 months or so has generally seen the party increase in popularity, the new figures suggest that this support has been built on shaky foundations. Brown, on the other hand, assumed the leadership of his party unopposed, demonstrating a party unity that has reflected favourably in the polls.

What is more difficult to fathom, however, is Cameron's failure to catch Brown on the hop during the handover period. Brown's PMQ performances have been stuttering at best, and a deft orator such as Cameron (who could hold his own against the razor sharp Blair) should have had no trouble exploiting this more. However, with a substantial 49% of those polled seeing Brown as presiding over a real change of leadership style, this has not been the case.

It may be that Tory voters are beginning to see that party leadership is a matter of "different horses for different courses," and that what worked against Blair could have the opposite effect against his successer. Whether Brown will bounce all the way to an early election in October or May however, still remains to be seen.

I predict a re-bound.